REGIONAL WEATHER FORECASTING SYSTEM

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Author

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Department of Computer Science

REGIONAL WEATHER FORECASTING SYSTEM

CHAPTER ONE

GENERAL INTRODUCTION

1.1                      INTRODUCTION

Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the state of the atmosphere for a given location. Human beings have attempted to predict the weather informally for millennia, and formally since the nineteenth century. Weather forecasts are made by collecting quantitative data about the current state of the atmosphere and using scientific understanding of atmospheric processes to project how the atmosphere will evolve. (Wikipedia Online Encyclopedia, n.d).

Once an all-human endeavor based mainly upon changes in barometric pressure, current weather conditions, and sky condition, weather forecasting now relies on computer-based models that take many atmospheric factors into account. Human input is still required to pick the best possible forecast model to base the forecast upon, which involves pattern recognition skills, teleconnections, knowledge of model performance, and knowledge of model biases. The chaotic nature of the atmosphere, the massive computational power required to solve the equations that describe the atmosphere, error involved in measuring the initial conditions, and an incomplete understanding of atmospheric processes mean that forecasts become less accurate as the difference in current time and the time for which the forecast is being made (the range of the forecast) increases.  It is because of margins of errors caused by the forecast methods above that the technique of forecasting weather information by Persistence is used.

Persistence remains the simplest method of forecasting the weather, persistence, relies upon today's conditions to forecast the conditions tomorrow. This can be a valid way of forecasting the weather when it is steady state, such as during the summer season in the tropics. This method of forecasting strongly depends upon the presence of a stagnant weather pattern. It can be useful in both short range forecasts and long range forecasts (University of Illinois, 2007).

1.2     STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

Weather forecasting information acquired by several e-applications is sourced form weather satellites which provide information about a large area which could cover geographical        sub-regions. The problems associated in relying on the data provided by such means are outlined below:

Inaccurate data: The weather condition about a particular region cannot be accurately gathered with high precision by the satellite monitors and hence inaccurate data is supplied to the e-applications.

Inaccurate Forecast Prediction: Due to the collection of inaccurate data about a particular location within the geographical space being monitored, the weather forecast prediction calculations will result in inaccurate results.

1.3     AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

This research project aims to address the problems cited above by Regional Weather Forecast System in order to accurately, through the technique of weather forecasting by the Persistence method, predict the weather condition about a specific location. This will be achieved through the implementation of the following objectives:

·        Provide a platform through which the regional data parameters about a particular location will be collected and submitted to a central location for other e-Science applications to access

·        Design an online e-Science application to access the data to provide weather forecast predictions based on the data.

1.4      SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

          Through the successful implementation of this research project, accurate data will be collected about a particular area which will ensure reliable weather prediction analysis and subsequently reduce the risks of traffic accidents caused by wrongly forecasted weather predictions. 

1.5     SCOPE AND LIMITATIONS

The scope of this works covers the following:

·        Provision of a platform through which the regional data parameters about a particular location will be collected and submitted to a central location for other e-Science applications to access

This study will be limited to regional weather data gotten from Lagos state, and the e-Science application developed will only cover the use of the data collected to predict the weather condition of the following day.

1.6     RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

The source of data to be used for this work will come from the internet, libraries and public journals.

1.5            DEFINITION OF TERMS

Weather Forecasting: Weather forecasting is the application of current technology and science to predict the state of the atmosphere for a future time and a given location.

Weather Satellite:  The weather satellite is a type of satellite that is primarily used to monitor the weather and climate of the Earth. Satellites can be polar orbiting, covering the entire Earth asynchronously, or geostationary, hovering over the same spot on the equator