IMPACTS OF SOCIAL MEDIA ON ELECTION OUTCOMES: AN ANALYSIS OF NIGERIA'S 2019 ELECTIONS

Abstract

Social media networks over the years has proven to be a great source of information and communication in a large scale leading to a vast amount of diverse datasets. This capability makes it possible to analyse large amounts of data virtually on any topic from online users. Organisations, media houses, politicians, artists, entertainers, among others, utilise social media to engage with a broader audience. Social media platforms play an instrumental role in election campaigns and other political debates, as reported in past studies. Despite the growing number of studies concerning the impact of social media in elections, little attention has been paid to Africa's largest democracy (Nigeria); this motivates our study. For the study, we collected a large number of tweets based on the Twitter handles of the political parties and presidential candidates. We measured the online activities of political parties and candidates and analyzed users' opinions to understand their sentiments. We apply a novel method of reverse engineering of Twitter accounts to understand the online campaign strategies of the parties. It was found out that twitter was mostly used by the parties and their candidates to put across campaign promises and canvas vote from the public, the civil society used twitter for engagements and discussing the available candidates thereby leading to availability of much information about them, creating awareness for the wide array of social media users. Finally, compared to the actual election outcome, our Twitter analysis correctly predicts the winner in 24 states out of the 37 states (including the Federal Capital Territory). Our findings provide insight into the 2019 Nigerian election from social media perspectives and encourage further research about the country using data from social media.

Table Of Content

Abstract

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background Of Study

1.2 Statement Of The Problem

1.3 Objectives Of Study

1.4 Research Questions

1.5 Significance Of The Study

1.6 Scope And Limitations Of Study

1.7 Research Methodology

CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

2.1 Conceptual Review

2.2 Role Of Social Media In Democracy

2.3 Review Of Related Theories

CHAPTER THREE: OVERVIEW OF THE IMPACT OF SOCIAL MEDIA ON ELECTIONS OUTCOME

3.1 Ethnographic Analysis Of Nigerian Elections

3.2 Introduction Of Social Media Into Nigeria’s Political Sphere

3.3 How Social Media Promotes Political Participation In Nigeria:

CHAPTER FOUR: DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

4.1 What Was The Extent Of Use Of Social As a Political Tool During The 2019 Elections

4.2 What Were The Online Campaign Strategies Used By Candidates And Political Parties

4.3 What Is The Correlation Between Social Media Campaigns And Election Outcomes

CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

5.1 Summary

5.2 Conclusion

5.3 Recommendations

References